Market Pessimism Intensifies, Iron Ore Prices Fluctuate and Decline [SMM Commentary]

Published: Feb 25, 2025 16:35

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Today, iron ore futures continued to decline. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 813 yuan/mt, down 2.17% for the day. Market transaction sentiment was moderate. Transaction prices fell by 10-15 yuan/mt compared to yesterday. Over the past two weeks, pig iron production has slightly declined, leading to a decrease in iron ore demand. Additionally, the implementation of steel policies by Vietnam and South Korea targeting China has intensified market pessimism, dragging ore prices lower. Overall, the downside adjustment space for ore prices in the short term is limited. With the recovery of market sentiment and the improvement in demand expectations, there remains some rebound potential.

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Today, DCE iron ore futures continued to decline. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 813, down 2.17% for the day. Traders sold at market prices; steel mills purchased as needed; speculative trading by traders increased. Market transaction sentiment was moderate. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 808-816 yuan/mt, down 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, transaction prices for PB fines were around 820-825 yuan/mt, also down 10-15 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to SMM's weekly maintenance statistics, this week's blast furnace maintenance impacted pig iron production by 167.42, up 51,500 mt WoW. It is expected to increase by another 43,000 mt next week. Pig iron production slightly declined, and iron ore demand weakened. Additionally, Vietnam and South Korea implemented policies on Chinese steel, intensifying market pessimism and dragging ore prices lower. Currently, steel mills are profitable, and inventory pressure remains low. Meanwhile, with the Two Sessions approaching, the market holds high expectations for policy direction and industry development. Overall, the downside space for ore prices in the short term is limited. With the recovery of market sentiment and improved demand expectations, there is still some rebound potential.

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